Primary brinksmanship

A Gallup poll result that has been gaining traction on the internets and in the media suggests there will be heavy Democratic defections in the general election to the McCain side. Specifically, it says that 28% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain over Obama in the general election, and that 19% of Obama supporters would vote for McCain over Clinton.

My intuition is that, if accurate, these numbers will subside dramatically once the primary is over and the general election campaign starts in earnest. In the heat of the primary it can be very emotionally satisfying to say that if X wins, fuck it, I'm voting McCain. Moreover, it also makes sense from a purely tactical point of view: if you can convince other Democrats that you and lots of others will walk if your candidate isn't chosen, it may convince them to vote for your candidate in an attempt to keep you around. Telling a pollster that you favor McCain over your candidate's primary opponent is one way of pursuing this strategy.

So what's happening here, I think, is a mixture of saying the emotionally satisfying thing but also engaging in some political brinkmanship. But I doubt many people will follow through on their threats and actually pull the lever for McCain in November.

At the end of the day, no one wants to stay in Iraq.