Election night in a nutshell

More specifically, when they called Ohio for Obama:



PS: Note that none other than I uploaded this video, which I created on my MacBook. Thanks, MacBook!

The proper map

Via Krugman.

What I'll be watching for tomorrow night

I think we're going to know the winner relatively early on tomorrow, because McCain has so many states in the East that he needs to win. From 538:

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over. (Emphasis mine.)

Also, it would seem that McCain must win at least one of the following: Pennsylvania||Virginia.

How can we win when fools can be king? Don't waste your time or time will waste you

Seeing as how we're in the endgame of the election, it behooves everyone who is thinking about making a donation to just figure out once and for all how much more money they want to give and give it now, in toto. I know a lot of us have had a sort of ad hoc donating strategy, but time's up--it's now or never.

And, yes, I will use a fancy-pants Latin phrase whenever the opportunity arises. And, yes, I realize that this is the intellectual equivalent of being one of those guys who wears a hat--i.e., that it doesn't work, it impresses no one, and should be stopped--but I just don't want to face reality on the matter. I obstinately fold my arms and say "qua" thus.

Nothing new under the bloggy sun

I was going to write a post called "Parity" in which I noted that according to the RCP meta-poll, 538, and Intrade, the race was about even--but then I saw that Paul Krugman has beaten me to it with a post called "Even Odds". Then I was going to write another post about how the McCain campaign is lying its pants off when it claims that Obama called Palin "a pig with lipstick", but half the internet has got that one covered.

For what it's worth, I think things are about to start turning around for Obama and the Democrats, and that this latest outrageously false claim from the McCain campaign is one outrageously false claim too far. Following Ezra Klein's insightful post the other day, the media renders the continuous onslaught of news data comprehensible to consumers by framing it within running narratives. I would add that--perhaps out of an obligation to "balance", or maybe just because of a bias towards closer and more interesting races--there is a somewhat pendular motion to press coverage, such that a week or two of positive coverage for a candidate tends to be balanced by a period of negative coverage.

I think the press is getting antsy with its rosy McCain-surging-from-convention-and-Palin-pick narrative, which is one that has emphasized Palin's star turn over the steady drumbeat of false claims eminating from the McCain campaign. However, in order for the shift to occur, there has to be something for the media to affix its narrative to. This pig/lipstick nonsense could be it. In the first place, it's a deception that is readily verifiable in print and on video, so mainstream outlets can comfortably show it without fear of seeming impartial: they can just run a clip of McCain people accusing Obama of making the insult, and then juxtapose it with footage of what Obama said in context, with no need for a reporter to connect any dots. Second, it plays into what has become a pattern of questionable or outright false statements from the McCain campaign, giving the story a direction to run in: does the McCain campaign have a truth problem?

Of course, these things don't happen entirely on their own. Obama is going to have to drive the narrative in speeches, through surrogates, and in campaign ads. He is going to have to actively call out McCain and Palin for campaigning on personal attacks, misrepresentations, and outright lies, and for their silence on issues like health care and the economy.

Biden is already sounding the notes (via Fallows):



And looking around the internet, some people have submitted some pretty good-sounding examples of "what Obama should say". From a Sullivan reader:

"Yesterday I talked to a group of voters about how the McCain campaign is trying to call their continuation of just about every single Bush-Cheney policy of the last eight years "change." In doing so, I used a common, hundred-year-old phrase that we all understand: You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. Now the McCain campaign demands that I apologize for saying this. Everyone, it seems, wants to hear my answer. Here it is: NO.

No, I will not apologize for telling the American people the truth: That McCain and Palin represent a stunning, and disastrous, continuation of Bush and Cheney's policies. Policies of sacrificing the middle class to give huge tax cuts to millionaires and big corporations. Policies that prevent Americans from getting the health care they need. Policies that would privatize Social Security and take away a woman's right to choose.

[...]

There's a word I've heard from the McCain campaign recently: "deference." No one is going to ask Sarah Palin a question, they say, unless they show her "deference." Joe Biden points out that they oppose all stem cell research, and they are offended he even mentioned it. I point out that their claim of bringing change is ridiculous, and they demand an apology. Apparently we are not showing them enough deference.

Let me explain something to Senator McCain and Governor Palin, as deferentially as I can: This is a democracy -- not a monarchy. You don't get to demand "deference" from the American people as if they were your royal subjects. You -- and I -- and everyone who seeks elected office must defer to the American people, and answer their questions, and fight for them even when it's politically inconvenient. That is what I promise to do. Thank You."

And from Nate Silver at 538:

My opponent's chief strategest just said, "this campaign isn't about the issues." Well, I've got news for you, America. The Republican Party is desperate. They are going to do anything to try and hold onto their power, because they know the damage they've done to our country, and they don't know how to fix it. They know that people are out of work, and they don't know how to help them. They know that people are dying because they don't have health insurance, and they don't know to save them. They know that families are struggling to put food on the table, and they know don't know how to provide for them.

So they're going to try and distract you, America, because that's the only thing they know how to do. They're going to try and scare you. They're going to try and tell you stories, instead of offering solutions. And yes, folks -- these are the same people that have been lying to you for the last eight years -- and they're going to lie to you again.

We'll see how it goes in the next couple of days. McCain has been in the driver's seat for the last week or so, but he's sold his soul to do it. If Obama can regain the momentum, he will be in a strong position heading into the final two months.

McCain's surge

The latest narrative coming from the press is that the tide is turning in McCain's favor, and that he just might out-campaign a lackadaisical Obama come November. But this is a bit overblown. In the first place, even though supposedly this has been a good month for McCain and a bad one for Obama, Obama is still ahead in most polls. Second, if we listen to people who have money riding on the question of who will win--as opposed to a bunch of journalists who need to make up something by deadline--we see that McCain's prospects have increased a little, but are still pretty dang bleak:

Actual information

A report on the candidates' tax plans by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has been making the rounds today (via Paul Krugman's blog). Some highlights:

1. Both McCain and Obama would greatly increase the national debt, although McCain's plan would increase it by roughly 40% more than Obama's:
   

   ...without substantial cuts in government spending, both plans would sharply increase the national debt. Including interest costs, Obama would boost the debt by $3.5 trillion. McCain would increase the debt by $5 trillion.

2. Lower/middle income families would see their after-tax incomes rise under both plans:
   

   [Obama plan:] By 2012, middle-income taxpayers would see their after-tax income rise by about 5 percent, or nearly $2,200 annually.
   [...]
   McCain would lift after-tax incomes an average of about 3 percent, or $1,400 annually, for middle-income taxpayers by 2012.

3. Those in the top 1% will experience lower after-tax incomes under Obama's plan, but significantly higher after-tax incomes under McCain's plan:
   

   [Obama plan:] Those in the top 1 percent would face a $19,000, or 1.5 percent, reduction in after-tax income.
   [...]
   But, in sharp contrast to Obama, [McCain] would cut taxes for those in the top 1% by more than $125,000, raising their after-tax income an average 9.5 percent.
   
   

4. Significantly more people will have health insurance under Obama's plan than McCain's plan, but neither plan offers universal coverage:
   

   TPC projects the McCain plan would trim the uninsured by 1 million in 2009 and nearly 5 million by 2013, although their numbers would slowly rise thereafter because the tax credit would fail to keep pace with premiums. Obama would reduce the uninsured by 18 million in 2009 and 34 million by 2018. Even under the Obama plan, however, 34 million Americans would still lack insurance in 2018.
   

   
   

Dumb ad

For some reason Obama has decided to respond to McCain's dumb "he's a celebrity" attack ad with his own dumb "he's a celebrity" attack ad:



Do people really give a shit about this kind of thing? It's hard for me to believe they do.

Obama on a roll

Biff! Pow!

Maverick in a jetwash

Republicans have got to be worried that it's less than 100 days to the general election, and the McCain campaign is all over the place. First they base his whole candidacy on the notion that McCain has Honor, Courage, and American Pride oozing out of every pore and orifice--which is just fine. But now they are undermining that theme by launching a spate of ridiculous attack ads against Obama, one in which they make the baseless accusation that Obama neglected to visit wounded troops at a hospital because the press would not be there, and another in which they dismiss Obama as a mere substanceless celebrity on a par with Britany Spears and Paris Hilton (again making inaccurate claims). This sort of thing hurts McCain, not just because it contradicts his claims to various capitalized classical virtues, but because these schoolyard-taunt-level jabs reinforce the negative image of John McCain as short-tempered, immature, and deserving of his old highschool nickname.

And it's not just McCain's campaign strategy that's in disarray--he is all over the place on the issues, too. At first he opposed the Bush tax cuts, but now he supports them. He has also reversed himself on immigration, landing himself in the awkward position of opposing his own immigration bill. And now there are murmurs that he may not be committed to a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce carbon emissions after all. The Maverick has been systematically de-Mavericking himself.

A lot of people are using all this to level criticism at McCain, which of course is fine, but I think the root cause of all this spasmodic behavior is the fact that Republicans have put McCain in a totally untenable position. Rather than gaining an advantage during the lengthy period of time in which he had the nomination rapped up while Obama and Clinton were still duking it out, McCain was forced to spend all of his energies pandering to and consolidating the Republican base. The Rush/Hannity/Romney wing of the Republican party was unwilling to go along with McCain's deviations from Republican orthodoxy, and so he has had to gradually and painfully reverse himself on the very issues which made him stand out in the first place.

The Rushes, Hannities, and Romnies might be satisfied with the transformation they've wrought, but they've also completely hamstrung their guy for the general election. Because McCain can no longer run on his sometimes-unorthodox-for-a-Republican but always-arch-conservative record, he is forced to ineffectually attack made-up character flaws of his opponent. And the Republican establishment is following suit, leading to some weird results: "terrorist fist-jabs", seven-house-owning-heiress-marrying McCain calling Obama an elitist, Karl Rove absurdly characterizing Obama as "that guy at the country club" who "makes snide comments about everyone who passes by".* The inexplicable comparison of Obama to Paris Hilton--in a campaign ad--is just the latest installment.

Unless there is a big change in the so-called "fundamentals", McCain is going to have a hell of a time winning this thing. The Independents have cooled to him because of his tacking towards the ideological right, and the ideological right still harbors the sneaking suspicion that this guy is some kind of Independent. And since there's no Hillary--and Republicans can't really remember what Republicans not being in power is like--there's little sense of urgency in getting McCain elected.

To top it all off, the GOP continues its disturbing morning ritual of playing Russian Roulette with its foot--giving us a consistent stream of Republican indictments, contempts-of-Congress, and balls-out law-breaking. For Democrats these days, it's like God is smiling down on us and nodding, "Yes", and then holding Karl Rove in contempt.

So, we'll see if McCain can figure out a way to bounce back. I just hope he keeps cranking out those entertaining commercials.


* The most awesome thing about this story was the fact that, in Karl Rove World, it makes sense to assume that your audience can relate to "that guy at the country club". You know, like that guy you always see at the Billionaire Yacht Faberge Egg Convention whose always making those snide remarks about your Faberge Egg that's on your yacht...I fucking hate those guys.