Manipulating political futures markets is friggin' awesome

Just read this 538 post. It's pretty cool.

(BTW Lindsay, I read this before you linked to it in comments, so nah.)

It is beyond numbers now

Seen on Intrade:

McCain's surge

The latest narrative coming from the press is that the tide is turning in McCain's favor, and that he just might out-campaign a lackadaisical Obama come November. But this is a bit overblown. In the first place, even though supposedly this has been a good month for McCain and a bad one for Obama, Obama is still ahead in most polls. Second, if we listen to people who have money riding on the question of who will win--as opposed to a bunch of journalists who need to make up something by deadline--we see that McCain's prospects have increased a little, but are still pretty dang bleak: