Showing posts with label federal reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label federal reserve. Show all posts

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Government stimulus impossible?

I usually try to stay away from The Corner, but this (via Yglesias) strikes me as pretty egregious:

The idea that government spending creates jobs makes sense only if you never ask where the government got the money. It didn’t fall from the sky. The only way Congress can inject spending into the economy is by first taxing or borrowing it out of the economy. No new demand is created; it’s a zero-sum transfer of existing demand.

This, in a word, is bullshit. The concept of "borrowing money out of the economy" is a non-sequitor--if anything, money is borrowed into the economy, in the sense that every dollar borrowed is a dollar spent (in other words, people don't borrow money just to stuff it under a mattress--they borrow money with something to buy in mind, like a house, car, etc.).

In fact, normally the main mechanism by which the economy is regulated is by manipulating the amount of borrowing going on. This is accomplished by the Federal Reserve, which has its finger on the interest rate--lowering the rate makes borrowing cheaper, and so more borrowing--and therefore more spending--takes place. And more spending==increased demand==stimulus (these are just semantically equivalent terms).

The problem these days is that the Federal Reserve can no longer increase demand amongst the private sector by lowering the interest rate because the interest rate is already at zero (or near zero--I think it's like 0.25% or something). And so the federal government has stepped in to shoulder the burden, borrowing--and spending--hundreds of billions of dollars on its own. I have a feeling Riedl wants to say something like, "yes, but this demand is canceled out by the fact that the money will have to be repaid later via taxes", but this is no different in principle than the fact that the car or house-buying private citizen needs to eventually repay the loan that was taken out. Obligation to pay down debt later doesn't negate the fact of money being spent now, whether you're talking about a private individual, a company, the government, or whatever.


Monday, April 7, 2008

Clinton busts out

I'd be remiss if I didn't pass along this Clinton bust-out. She definitely knows her stuff and can communicate her mastery of a subject better than any other candidate:


(Hat tip: Sullivan)

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman and Wise Old Man

Volcker remarks on the unprecedented maneuvers the Federal Reserve is making to prevent a financial collapse, and recommends more government regulation of the financial industry in general. I don't pretend to understand a lot of this, but I think I get the gist:



(Via Calculated Risk)

PS: If you're wondering why Charlie Rose is sporting a shiner, it's because he sacrificed his face for his MacBook Air.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Uh-oh

In an effort to keep financial firm Bear Stearns from going bankrupt, it was agreed that JP Morgan would buy it out (at a bargain price of $2/share) and that the Federal Reserve would help JP Morgan guarantee Bear's financial obligations.

The hope is that bailing out Bear Stearns will buoy investor confidence enough to prevent the US financial industry from sliding into complete ruin. I suppose this is an effective strategy: if you're an investor, what could give you more confidence in an institution than backing from the guys who print the money?

But it's kind of disconcerting. As this WaPo op-ed points out, there is "abundant evidence from the currency and gold markets that the world has just about all the dollar bills it cares to hold". This suggests that maybe the Federal Reserve's trick of pulling new US dollars out of its hat every time a teetering financial giant needs righting might not be viable if things continue to worsen. And this very fact, of course, will cause things to continue to worsen.

So it looks bad. Though overall prices held steady last month, inflation is up for the year. Stocks are tumbling. Gold is soaring. And Intrade.com has 70% odds that we're heading into a recession this year.

:(